As Hurricane Joaquin rumbles toward the East coast, and possibly into turn two at Dover International Speedway, fourteen of The Chase contenders are on the ropes. Fourteen you say? Yep. Only Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin are safe at this point. Even the current third place driver, Carl Edwards, has to finish in the 32nd to 34th spots, depending if he leads any laps or not. Those in The Chase spots 13 through 16, pretty much need to win to advance, or have a large number of Chasers run into some very bad juju. Which is entirely possible, as Kevin Harvick may have a little present planned for Jimmie Johnson this weekend. If Harvick does give a “present”, I doubt it will be something to help Jimmie celebrate his 500th career start.
The statisticians and math geeks are all giddy about “so and so has a 12% chance to make The Chase and so and so has a 3% chance…” All I know is, four aren’t gonna make it and twelve are. We know who two of them are so that leaves 10. By my math, which is not anything to write MIT about, that means each of the 14 remaining Chase drivers have a 71.42857142857143% chance of moving onto the next round. Yes, that is simplistic, and possible entirely wrong, but I never claimed to be a rocket surgeon.
If I had to pick someone at this point to win the Championship, it would be Jimmie Johnson. I know the Gibbs guys are on a roll, but I just can’t shake the feeling that the 48 team is about to win a couple of races. I would like to see Jeff Gordon go out on top, but I am not convinced that they have their stuff together to pull it off. If a Gibbs driver does win, I think it will be Denny Hamlin. No reason, just a WAG.
I certainly hope that Hurricane Joaq weakens and does not cause any death and destruction. It would also be nice to get the race in over the weekend. If you’re in the path of the storm, I hope you stay safe! I also pray for those affected by the senseless violence in Oregon. Enough is enough already.